The Bank of Russia will keep the rate unchanged; there are no reasons for a reduction yet, believes Ilya Fedorov, chief economist at BCS World of Investments.
"The lending dynamics, which in December-January were below the Central Bank's target level, is not a sustainable trend. Prices are still growing at a high rate and are far from the Central Bank's target. Although wage growth has slowed, it still remains double-digit."
Ilya Fedorov
Chief Economist, BCS World of Investments
Lending will be in a squeezed state throughout January and tunisia mobile database February, the situation will improve somewhat in March, the economist predicts. The dynamics will depend on the banks' capital and the burden on capital. Capital allowances intended to curb excess lending will come into effect in February.
“I think that the key refinancing rate at the meeting of the Central Bank of Russia on February 14 will be left at the current level of 21% per annum, since the rate of lending in Russia is decreasing, and inflation is slowing down, but still remains elevated,” believes Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov.
In December, the total volume of loans to Russians decreased for the first time since May 2022, according to data from the Central Bank. The total amount of loans to the population fell by 192 billion rubles to 36.9 trillion. According to the Rosstat report "On the assessment of consumer prices in Russia", for the period from January 21 to 27, inflation in Russia slowed to 0.22%, after 0.25% a week earlier, the analyst recalls.
The Bank of Russia will wait: will the rate not change?
Photo - © RIA Novosti
"We believe that in February the Bank of Russia will take a wait-and-see position and leave the key rate unchanged. On the one hand, we see that as of January 27, the price growth since the beginning of the year was an impressive 1.14%. On the other hand, January is traditionally a month with relatively high inflation due to the peak of budget expenditures in December, the payment of bonuses and thirteenth salaries, which contributed to increased demand during the holidays. In its rhetoric over the past year, the Bank of Russia has made it clear to us that a slowdown in lending is one of the main prerequisites for reducing inflation," comments Ivan Efanov, an analyst at Tsifra Broker.
At the end of 2024, consumer and corporate lending began to slow down, this is indirectly confirmed by the recently released reports of T-Bank and Sberbank under RAS for December, the corporate loan portfolio of the latter decreased by 1.4%, and the consumer by 3.4%. We also consider the macroprudential limits on unsecured loans introduced in the fourth quarter of 2024 to be an effective measure, which limited lending to borrowers, notes Efanov.