“In 2025, I expect trading on the dollar/ruble pair to be in the range of 100-105 rubles, but sometimes the dollar exchange rate may rise to 108-115 rubles, for example, after the introduction of a new round of economic sanctions against the Russian Federation, a sharp decline in world oil prices or an increase in the discount on Russian oil (against the taiwan mobile database backdrop of the same sanctions against the tanker fleet), as well as in the event of an escalation of the geopolitical situation,” says Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov.
In his opinion, the main influence on the dollar exchange rate in Russia will be exerted by Russian authorities when they determine the volume of sales of foreign currency earnings by exporters, thereby effectively regulating the exchange rate manually.
The government needs to maintain a balance, since the Ministry of Finance benefits from a high dollar exchange rate, since it is responsible for filling the Russian Federation budget, which is drawn up with a deficit, and with an increase in the dollar exchange rate, revenues to the treasury from exporters in ruble equivalent increase. At the same time, the Central Bank is actively fighting inflation, so it is not beneficial for them to weaken the ruble, because of this, all imported goods become more expensive when converted to the national currency, explains Chernov.